Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd against Derby: 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Bramall Lane (Sheffield), referee Stephen Martin, England. Sheffield Utd (53%) go into the match as favourites. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 1.82 | 4.01 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 3.82 | 4.33 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 1.74 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.05 | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.81 | 33.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.69 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.07 | 44.9% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 24/10/26, 10:03. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sheffield Utd 12th (16 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Sheffield Utd 4W 3D 4L (15:14), Derby 1W 3D 7L (9:20).
- H2H: 14 matches: Sheffield Utd 9W 2D 3L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Sheffield Utd 2, Derby 11.
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: absences and injuries
Sheffield Utd
- M. Dohertyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Shackletonabsence · will miss the match
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Widell Zetterstromknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Johnstonnot in the squad · doubtful
- A. Mowattabsence · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sheffield Utd
Derby
Home and away
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Sheffield Utd are 12th with 16 points from 12 matches (4W 4D 4L); Derby are 23rd with 7 points (1W 4D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Sheffield Utd average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match in the competition; Derby score 0.8 and concede 1.8.
- Form in the competition. Sheffield Utd: 4W 3D 4L, goals 15–14; Derby: 1W 3D 7L, goals 9–20.
- Head to head. Of their 14 meetings, Sheffield Utd have 9 wins and Derby 3 wins, with 2 draws; goals 22–14.
What to expect
We expect Sheffield Utd to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (11.2%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we rate at 67%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 55% and of over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 14; Sheffield Utd 9 wins, 2 draws, Derby 3 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Sheffield Utd 15–14, Derby 9–20.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 54%.
- Absences: Sheffield Utd 2, Derby 11.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score – yes
Alternative: Both teams to score – yes (probability 55%, best odds 1.73). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Sheffield Utd will be without: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby are missing: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
Sheffield UtdDWLWLDerbyDLLDDSheffield Utd vs Derby: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our tip on the result is Sheffield Utd to win at odds of 1.82, and for goals we suggest Under 3.5 goals at 1.45. The safer option is Sheffield Utd or draw (1X).
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Sheffield Utd win 53%, draw 25%, Derby win 22%.
When and where is the match played?
24 October 2026 at 12:30, venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield. Referee: Stephen Martin, England.
Who will be missing?
Sheffield Utd: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 54% (odds 1.78) and of under 2.5 goals 46% (odds 2.13).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 55% (odds 1.73).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (11.2%), followed by 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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