Bet with Freshbet →Millwall against Derby: 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at The Den (London). Millwall (55%) go into the match as favourites. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Millwall vs Derby: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 1.73 | 3.93 | 4.94 |
| Market average | 1.69 | 3.72 | 4.60 |
| Lowest odds | 1.61 | 3.43 | 4.22 |
| Megapari | 1.73 | 3.74 | 4.47 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.83 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.96 | 48.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 3.01 | 30.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.80 | 1.76 | 52.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.95 | 47.5% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 26/10/26, 02:45. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 7.9%.
Megapari odds for this match
Partner odds, updated 27/10/26, 03:18. Click to open the match on the Megapari site. 18+
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Millwall 1–1 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Millwall 13th (15 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Millwall 4W 3D 5L (19:20), Derby 1W 4D 7L (10:21).
- H2H: 22 matches: Millwall 9W 7D 6L, goals 21–25.
- Absences: Millwall 0, Derby 0.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Millwall vs Derby: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Millwall vs Derby: absences and injuries
Millwall
- No reported absences
Derby
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Millwall
Derby
Home and away
Millwall vs Derby: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Millwall are 13th with 15 points from 12 matches (4W 3D 5L); Derby are 23rd with 7 points (1W 4D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Millwall average 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match in the competition; Derby score 0.8 and concede 1.8.
- Form in the competition. Millwall: 4W 3D 5L, goals 19–20; Derby: 1W 4D 7L, goals 10–21.
- Head to head. Of their 22 meetings, Millwall have 9 wins and Derby 6 wins, with 7 draws; goals 21–25.
What to expect
We expect Millwall to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (11.2%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.80), which we rate at 52%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 52% and of over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 22; Millwall 9 wins, 7 draws, Derby 6 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Millwall 19–20, Derby 10–21.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 52%.
- Absences: Millwall 0, Derby 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 goals (probability 52%, best odds 1.85). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Millwall will be without: no absences. Derby are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby: team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
MillwallLDLWDDerbyDLLDDMillwall vs Derby: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Millwall vs Derby: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Millwall vs Derby?
Our tip on the result is Millwall to win at odds of 1.73, and for goals we suggest Both teams to score at 1.80. The safer option is Millwall or draw (1X).
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Millwall win 55%, draw 25%, Derby win 20%.
When and where is the match played?
31 October 2026 at 15:00, venue: The Den, London.
Who will be missing?
Millwall: no absences. Derby: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.85) and of under 2.5 goals 48% (odds 2.00).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 52% (odds 1.80).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (11.2%), followed by 1–0 (11.2%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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