Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derby host Stoke City on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby), with Oliver Langford, England as referee. We see the match as evenly balanced. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Derby vs Stoke City: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 3.01 | 3.50 | 2.41 |
| Market average | 2.89 | 3.37 | 2.37 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 1.96 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.81 | 52.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.51 | 3.33 | 27.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 53.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.01 | 2.00 | 46.3% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 6.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Stoke City, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Stoke City 9th (20 points).
- Absences: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Derby vs Stoke City: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Derby vs Stoke City: absences and injuries
Derby
- No reported absences
Stoke City
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Derby vs Stoke City: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Stoke City
Home and away
Derby vs Stoke City: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Derby are 23rd with 7 points from 12 matches (1W 4D 7L); Stoke City are 9th with 20 points (6W 2D 4L).
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 1–1, so roughly 2 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (12.6%). We expect a fairly even contest.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.75), which we rate at 54%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 54% and of over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Key points of the prediction
- We expect roughly 2 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 48%.
- Absences: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Alternative tip: Under 2.5 goals
Alternative: Under 2.5 goals (probability 52%, best odds 1.86). We expect roughly 2 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Derby will be without: no absences. Stoke City are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
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Derby vs Stoke City: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our tip on the result is Draw or Stoke City (X2) at odds of 1.40, and for goals we suggest Both teams to score at 1.75. The safer option is Draw or Stoke City (X2).
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Derby win 33%, draw 28%, Stoke City win 40%.
When and where is the match played?
17 October 2026 at 15:00, venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Oliver Langford, England.
Who will be missing?
Derby: no absences. Stoke City: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 48% (odds 2.03) and of under 2.5 goals 52% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 54% (odds 1.75).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (12.6%), followed by 0–1 (10.5%) and 1–0 (9.4%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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