Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Cardiff v Birmingham kicks off on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff), refereed by Tim Robinson, England. In our view it is an even contest. Further down you will find the tip, the chances of each result, absences and a breakdown of the match.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.65 | 3.88 | 2.57 |
| Market average | 2.56 | 3.72 | 2.49 |
| Lowest odds | 2.43 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.50 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.28 | 41.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.67 | 34.8% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Cardiff 1–1 Birmingham, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Cardiff 16th (14 points), Birmingham 7th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Cardiff 2W 5D 4L (18:17), Birmingham 5W 5D 1L (20:11).
- H2H: 24 matches: Cardiff 13W 8D 3L, goals 35–18.
- Absences: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Cardiff vs Birmingham: absences and injuries
Cardiff
- C. Chambersknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lawlorhamstring injury · will miss the match
- G. Oshored card · will miss the match
- R. Colwillankle injury · doubtful
- P. Ngnot in the squad · doubtful
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
The list may change before kick-off.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Cardiff
Birmingham
Home and away
Cardiff vs Birmingham: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Cardiff are 16th with 14 points from 12 matches (3W 5D 4L); Birmingham are 7th with 20 points (5W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Cardiff average 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in the competition; Birmingham score 1.8 and concede 1.0.
- Form in the competition. Cardiff: 2W 5D 4L, goals 18–17; Birmingham: 5W 5D 1L, goals 20–11.
- Head to head. Of their 24 meetings, Cardiff have 13 wins and Birmingham 3 wins, with 8 draws; goals 35–18.
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 2–2, so roughly 4 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (10.4%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.45), which we rate at 65%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 65% and of over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 24; Cardiff 13 wins, 8 draws, Birmingham 3 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Cardiff 18–17, Birmingham 20–11.
- We expect roughly 4 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 62%.
- Absences: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Alternative tip: Draw or Birmingham (X2)
Alternative: Draw or Birmingham (X2) (probability 63%, best odds 1.55). We expect roughly 4 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Cardiff will be without: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Birmingham are missing: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
CardiffWDWLWBirminghamLWWWDCardiff vs Birmingham: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Cardiff vs Birmingham: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our tip on the result is Draw or Birmingham (X2) at odds of 1.55, and for goals we suggest Both teams to score at 1.45. The safer option is Draw or Birmingham (X2).
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Cardiff win 37%, draw 25%, Birmingham win 38%.
When and where is the match played?
24 October 2026 at 15:00, venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Referee: Tim Robinson, England.
Who will be missing?
Cardiff: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 62% (odds 1.56) and of under 2.5 goals 38% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 65% (odds 1.45).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (10.4%), followed by 1–2 (8.3%) and 2–1 (8.3%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting involves risk. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win. Please gamble responsibly.