Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bolton against Middlesbrough: 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Toughsheet Community Stadium (Horwich), referee Simon Hooper, England. Middlesbrough (58%) go into the match as favourites. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.66 |
| Market average | 4.70 | 4.38 | 1.62 |
| Lowest odds | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.12 | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.44 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.66 | 35.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.13 | 44.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 23/10/26, 18:00. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 5.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bolton 1–2 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bolton 18th (14 points), Middlesbrough 1st (25 points).
- Form in the competition: Bolton 4W 2D 5L (15:18), Middlesbrough 6W 4D 1L (22:16).
- H2H: 15 matches: Bolton 1W 1D 13L, goals 9–34.
- Absences: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: absences and injuries
Bolton
- J. Nelsonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Forino-Josephgroin injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Strelecinjury · will miss the match
The list may change before kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bolton
Middlesbrough
Home and away
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Bolton are 18th with 14 points from 12 matches (4W 2D 6L); Middlesbrough are 1st with 25 points (7W 4D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Bolton average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match in the competition; Middlesbrough score 2.0 and concede 1.5.
- Form in the competition. Bolton: 4W 2D 5L, goals 15–18; Middlesbrough: 6W 4D 1L, goals 22–16.
- Head to head. Of their 15 meetings, Bolton have 1 win and Middlesbrough 13 wins, with 1 draw; goals 9–34.
What to expect
We expect Middlesbrough to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 1–2, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–2 (9.7%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), which we rate at 65%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 63% and of over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 15; Bolton 1 win, 1 draw, Middlesbrough 13 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.9 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Bolton 15–18, Middlesbrough 22–16.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 65%.
- Absences: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score – yes
Alternative: Both teams to score – yes (probability 63%, best odds 1.50). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Bolton will be without: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough are missing: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
BoltonLDWLWMiddlesbroughWDWWDBolton vs Middlesbrough: head to head
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Bolton vs Middlesbrough: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Our tip on the result is Middlesbrough to win at odds of 1.66, and for goals we suggest Over 2.5 goals at 1.56. The safer option is Draw or Middlesbrough (X2).
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Bolton win 20%, draw 22%, Middlesbrough win 58%.
When and where is the match played?
23 October 2026 at 20:00, venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Referee: Simon Hooper, England.
Who will be missing?
Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.56) and of under 2.5 goals 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 63% (odds 1.50).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–2 (9.7%), followed by 1–1 (9.1%) and 0–2 (8.1%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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