Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Wolves host Watford on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton), with Robert Madley, England as referee. We see Wolves (66%) as the favourites. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Wolves vs Watford: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 1.47 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.43 | 4.63 | 6.76 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.17 | 79.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 1.61 | 58.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.28 | 41.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 2.51 | 37.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.78 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 1.95 | 47.7% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 6.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Wolves 2–0 Watford, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Wolves 4th (21 points), Watford 21st (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Wolves 5W 3D 3L (19:16), Watford 3W 2D 6L (10:19).
- H2H: 12 matches: Wolves 6W 2D 4L, goals 19–13.
- Absences: Wolves 5, Watford 5.
Who will win Wolves vs Watford?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Wolves vs Watford: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Wolves vs Watford: absences and injuries
Wolves
- R. Gomesfoot injury · will miss the match
- R. Jimenezknee injury · will miss the match
- B. Traoreinjury · will miss the match
- B. Traoreinjury · will miss the match
- A. Armstrongback injury · doubtful
Watford
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
- T. Akomeahabsence · doubtful
- M. Antonionot in the squad · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Wolves vs Watford: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Wolves
Watford
Home and away
Wolves vs Watford: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Wolves are 4th with 21 points from 12 matches (6W 3D 3L); Watford are 21st with 11 points (3W 2D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Wolves average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in the competition; Watford score 0.9 and concede 1.7.
- Form in the competition. Wolves: 5W 3D 3L, goals 19–16; Watford: 3W 2D 6L, goals 10–19.
- Head to head. Of their 12 meetings, Wolves have 6 wins and Watford 4 wins, with 2 draws; goals 19–13.
What to expect
We expect Wolves to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 2–0 (10.9%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55), which we rate at 63%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 52% and of over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 12; Wolves 6 wins, 2 draws, Watford 4 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Wolves 19–16, Watford 10–19.
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 59%.
- Absences: Wolves 5, Watford 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 goals (probability 59%, best odds 1.67). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Wolves will be without: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez, B. Traore, B. Traore, A. Armstrong. Watford are missing: K. Baah, E. Bove, J. Ngakia, T. Akomeah, M. Antonio. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Wolves vs Watford: team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
WolvesWDWLLWatfordLWLLLWolves vs Watford: head to head
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Wolves vs Watford: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Wolves vs Watford?
Our tip on the result is Wolves to win at odds of 1.47, and for goals we suggest Under 3.5 goals at 1.55. The safer option is Wolves or draw (1X).
Who will win Wolves vs Watford?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Wolves win 66%, draw 20%, Watford win 14%.
When and where is the match played?
24 October 2026 at 15:00, venue: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton. Referee: Robert Madley, England.
Who will be missing?
Wolves: R. Gomes, R. Jimenez, B. Traore, B. Traore, A. Armstrong. Watford: K. Baah, E. Bove, J. Ngakia, T. Akomeah, M. Antonio. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 59% (odds 1.67) and of under 2.5 goals 41% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 52% (odds 1.83).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 2–0 (10.9%), followed by 1–0 (10.2%) and 2–1 (9.9%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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