Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Southampton against Bolton: 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton), referee Matt Donohue, England. Southampton (66%) go into the match as favourites. Here you will find our tip, result probabilities, absences and analysis.
Southampton vs Bolton: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 1.48 | 5.25 | 6.62 |
| Market average | 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 84.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 33.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.2% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Southampton 2–1 Bolton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Southampton 6th (20 points), Bolton 18th (14 points).
- Absences: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Southampton vs Bolton: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Southampton vs Bolton: absences and injuries
Southampton
- No reported absences
Bolton
- No reported absences
The list may change before kick-off.
Southampton vs Bolton: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Southampton
Bolton
Home and away
Southampton vs Bolton: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Southampton are 6th with 20 points from 12 matches (7W 3D 2L); Bolton are 18th with 14 points (4W 2D 6L).
What to expect
We expect Southampton to have the upper hand: our score estimate is 2–1, so roughly 3 goals in total. The most likely result is 2–1 (9.7%). We expect an open match with goals.
Our goals tip: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), which we rate at 66%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 60% and of over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Key points of the prediction
- We expect roughly 3 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 66%.
- Absences: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams to score – yes
Alternative: Both teams to score – yes (probability 60%, best odds 1.57). We expect roughly 3 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Southampton will be without: no absences. Bolton are missing: no absences. Check the team news again before kick-off.
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Southampton vs Bolton: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Southampton vs Bolton?
Our tip on the result is Southampton to win at odds of 1.48, and for goals we suggest Over 2.5 goals at 1.45. The safer option is Southampton or draw (1X).
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Southampton win 66%, draw 19%, Bolton win 15%.
When and where is the match played?
17 October 2026 at 15:00, venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Referee: Matt Donohue, England.
Who will be missing?
Southampton: no absences. Bolton: no absences. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 66% (odds 1.45) and of under 2.5 goals 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 60% (odds 1.57).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 2–1 (9.7%), followed by 2–0 (9.2%) and 1–1 (8.2%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
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