Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lincoln host Burnley on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Sincil Bank (Lincoln), with Thomas Parsons, England as referee. We see the match as evenly balanced. Below you will find our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and match analysis.
Lincoln vs Burnley: odds comparison
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best odds on the market | 2.88 | 3.53 | 2.55 |
| Market average | 2.75 | 3.41 | 2.49 |
| Lowest odds | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.90 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.11 | 30.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
The odds summarise prices from several bookmakers, updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are a guide only and may differ at a given operator. Average margin 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lincoln 1–1 Burnley, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lincoln 15th (15 points), Burnley 22nd (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Lincoln 3W 3D 5L (9:19), Burnley 1W 5D 5L (16:21).
- H2H: 2 matches: Lincoln 2W 0D 0L, goals 5–1.
- Absences: Lincoln 5, Burnley 15.
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
The estimate is based on odds from several bookmakers with the margin removed. It is not a guarantee of the result.
Lincoln vs Burnley: more tips and betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price offers value. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider below 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lincoln vs Burnley: absences and injuries
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- F. Draperabsence · will miss the match
- T. Hamerred card · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
- E. Wheatleynot in the squad · will miss the match
Burnley
- E. Agyeiabsence · will miss the match
- A. Ahmedhodzicknock · will miss the match
- Z. Amdouniankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Barnesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Beyerhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Bruun Larseninjury · will miss the match
- B. Humphreysmuscle injury · will miss the match
- H. Mejbrihamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. Obafeminot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Ramseyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- S. Sambonot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiyenot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Vardyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Banelmuscle injury · doubtful
- J. Cullenknee injury · doubtful
The list may change before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Burnley: table and team form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7-4-1 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7-2-3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6-4-2 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6-3-3 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6-3-3 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7-3-2 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5-5-2 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6-2-4 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5-3-4 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5-3-4 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4-4-4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4-3-5 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4-3-5 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4-3-5 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3-5-4 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3-5-4 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4-2-6 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4-0-8 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3-2-7 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1-5-6 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1-4-7 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1-2-9 | 10:25 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lincoln
Burnley
Home and away
Lincoln vs Burnley: match analysis
Why we made this tip
- Table. Lincoln are 15th with 15 points from 12 matches (4W 3D 5L); Burnley are 22nd with 8 points (1W 5D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Lincoln average 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match in the competition; Burnley score 1.5 and concede 1.9.
- Form in the competition. Lincoln: 3W 3D 5L, goals 9–19; Burnley: 1W 5D 5L, goals 16–21.
- Head to head. Of their 2 meetings, Lincoln have 2 wins and Burnley 0 wins, with 0 draws; goals 5–1.
What to expect
We expect an even match: our score estimate is 1–1, so roughly 2 goals in total. The most likely result is 1–1 (12.4%). We expect a fairly even contest.
Interestingly, the table points towards the Lincoln, while the market gives slightly better chances to the away side. That makes the match hard to read, so more cautious bets make sense.
Our goals tip: Both teams to score (odds 1.70), which we rate at 56%. We put the chance of both teams scoring at 56% and of over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Key points of the prediction
- Meetings: 2; Lincoln 2 wins, 0 draws, Burnley 0 wins.
- Their meetings have averaged 3.0 goals per match.
- Goals for and against in the competition: Lincoln 9–19, Burnley 16–21.
- We expect roughly 2 goals; the chance of over 2.5 goals is 50%.
- Absences: Lincoln 5, Burnley 15.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative: Over 2.5 goals (probability 50%, best odds 1.93). We expect roughly 2 goals, which supports this tip.
Absences
Lincoln will be without: T. Darikwa, F. Draper, T. Hamer, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Burnley are missing: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic, Z. Amdouni, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, A. Ramsey, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, J. Vardy, J. Banel, J. Cullen. Check the team news again before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Burnley: team comparison
The values are based on this season's matches so far, so the sample is still small.
Form in the competition
LincolnWDLLLBurnleyLLDWDLincoln vs Burnley: head to head
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Lincoln vs Burnley: frequently asked questions
What is the tip for Lincoln vs Burnley?
Our tip on the result is Draw or Burnley (X2) at odds of 1.47, and for goals we suggest Both teams to score at 1.70. The safer option is Draw or Burnley (X2).
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
By our estimate, the probabilities are: Lincoln win 34%, draw 28%, Burnley win 38%.
When and where is the match played?
24 October 2026 at 15:00, venue: Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Referee: Thomas Parsons, England.
Who will be missing?
Lincoln: T. Darikwa, F. Draper, T. Hamer, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Burnley: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic, Z. Amdouni, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, A. Ramsey, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, J. Vardy, J. Banel, J. Cullen. The list may change before the match.
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
By our estimate, the chance of over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.93) and of under 2.5 goals 50% (odds 1.95).
Will both teams score?
We estimate the probability of both teams scoring at 56% (odds 1.70).
What is the most likely correct score?
The most likely score is 1–1 (12.4%), followed by 0–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (9.2%).
How are your predictions made?
We derive the probabilities from the odds of several bookmakers: we remove the margin and average the prices, then calculate the expected goals and the most likely scores with a Poisson distribution. Team form, head to head and absences are on the page as context. Our predictions are for information only and do not guarantee a win.
More predictions
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